The latest election poll shows Liberals suffering collateral damage from the Ontario budget. According to the latest Ipsos-Reid poll, the Liberals and Conservatives are tied for 36% in Ontario, and the Liberals are only leading the Blue devils 34% to 30% nationally.
Very bad, on the surface. The detailed analysis can be found here at the Ipsos-Reid site, and based on the seat projections, the Liberals and NDP combined would not have enough seats to prop up a coalition government.
That said, have the Conservatives won? Hardly.
First of all, Canadians still say Paul Martin would make the best Prime Minister. Secondly, although Canadians want regime change (I hate that word...god damn you Dubya!), Canadians aren't necessarily in favour of the Conservative agenda. John Ibbotson points out the wacky-doodle scenario we face in his column in today's Globe:
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We could be on the brink of a Canada with lower taxes, more funding for defence, much more autonomy for the provinces, much closer diplomatic ties to the United States, and much greater exposure to deficits and debt in the event of an economic downturn.
There is little sense that most Canadians actively want this future for their country. There is, however, such a deep and abiding resentment of the Liberal Party, and so profound a disenchantment with the first months of Prime Minister Paul Martin's government, that they may be ready to give a Conservative Canada a shot.
The unanswered question is whether voters are fully awake or simply mumbling in their sleep. Because as it now stands, the electorate is flirting with a constitutional nightmare.
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So, my advice to the confused, the angry, the bitter, the cynical and the uninterested? Hang in there...we've barely entered week 2 of the campaign. The debates are yet to come. The Conservatives haven't announced any spending initiatives aside from military money...and that's not exactly a priority with voters. And did Jack Layton steal Stephen Harper's money tree? That's where he must have contracted his foot-in-mouth disease...
