Tue, Jun
29
2004

As of 8:12am, the standings are...

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LIBERAL - 135
CONSERVATIVE - 99
BLOC QUEBECOIS - 54
NDP - 19
Independent - 1
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fed_elex_liberalminority1.jpg

Well, we're now in slightly more interesting territory than we were when I went to bed last night/this morning. This being Canada, we can never seem to do things the easy way, and now there are points that must be considered...

1-Paul Martin stared into the abyss...and it did not stare back. Now the question is how well is he at brokering cross-party deals for legislation, and how long this term will last. Federal minorities, even stable ones such as those of the Pearson governments back in the 1960s, barely last past two years. On the other hand, Bill Davis' Ontario PC minority in 1977 lasted almost four years. It can work...but WILL it work...?

2-The numbers game is suddenly tricky. Even if the independent MP can be convinced to enter a coalition of some sort, a speaker must still be chosen, and that usually comes from the government side of the house. If that precedent remains, then the Liberals and NDP combined will remain 2 votes shy of a majority, as the speaker only votes in a tie. Very interesting, this development...

3-The Bloc showed it's true colours last night. During his speech, Gilles Duceppe seemed to drop much of his calm pretence and started to rant and rave about sovreignty in a manner totally absent from his campaign. The party may prove more intransigent at negotiating legislation than most pundits believed only days ago...

4-The hope for a greater voter turnout, based on the massive advanced polling numbers, proved to be a bust. The pecentage was barely above 61% -- how are we going to fix this?

So...how do I feel right now? Still relieved...but also wary and cautious. We now live in interesting times -- times that will require exceptional leadership. Will we see it? I hope so...

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